President Donald Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu are set to meet Monday in Washington in what analysts are calling one of the most critical encounters in their yearslong alliance. The Oval Office talks and subsequent joint press conference come just days after Netanyahu delivered a defiant speech at the United Nations rejecting calls to end the Gaza war.
The timing underscores the political and diplomatic pressures both leaders face. Israel is increasingly isolated, with even long-time allies withdrawing support, while Netanyahu’s coalition at home is fragile. At the same time, the Trump administration has begun signaling frustration over Israel’s military strategy and failed operations.
In a social media post on Sunday, Trump wrote: “We have a real chance for GREATNESS IN THE MIDDLE EAST. ALL ARE ON BOARD FOR SOMETHING SPECIAL, FIRST TIME EVER. WE WILL GET IT DONE!!!” His optimism contrasts with the grim situation on the ground in Gaza, where tens of thousands have been killed and famine conditions have been reported.
Key flashpoint in U.S.–Israeli relations
Eytan Gilboa, professor at Bar-Ilan and Reichman universities, said Netanyahu “might have to choose between Trump and his coalition members,” many of whom demand the war continue until Hamas is destroyed. Ending the war could leave Netanyahu politically weakened ahead of next year’s elections.
Oded Ailam of the Jerusalem Center for Security and Foreign Affairs said Trump is likely to press Netanyahu for a permanent ceasefire, a demand that would leave the Israeli leader with few options. Netanyahu has repeatedly vowed to fight until Hamas is dismantled.
If Trump increases the pressure, observers expect Netanyahu will seek to secure “red lines” in any agreement, such as the right for Israel to strike Gaza again if Hamas resumes fighting or attempts to return to power.
Frustrations and limits of U.S. backing
The meeting follows a series of tense episodes in U.S.–Israeli cooperation. Trump strongly supported Israel in its June clash with Iran, ordering U.S. stealth bombers to strike nuclear sites. He has also defended Netanyahu during his ongoing corruption trial, calling it a “witch hunt.”
But frustration has grown in Washington. Trump was displeased by Israel’s failed strike on Hamas leaders in Qatar earlier this month — an operation that embarrassed U.S. partners mediating a ceasefire. He has also vowed to block Israeli annexation of the West Bank, a priority of Netanyahu’s far-right allies.
Michael Doran, a senior fellow at the Hudson Institute, argued Trump’s statements on annexation were tactical, giving Netanyahu political cover. “It simultaneously showed responsiveness to Arab and Muslim allies while actually helping out Netanyahu,” Doran said.
Still, Trump has hinted a Gaza breakthrough is near. On Friday, he said the U.S. was “very close to a deal.” Similar declarations in the past, however, have not materialized.
Trump’s 21-point Gaza plan
According to Arab officials briefed on the proposal, Trump’s ceasefire plan includes an immediate halt to fighting, the release of all hostages within 48 hours, and a phased withdrawal of Israeli troops from Gaza.
The plan calls for Hamas to disarm and relinquish control of Gaza, the release of hundreds of Palestinian prisoners by Israel, and the creation of an international security force to police postwar Gaza. Civilian governance would be overseen by a committee of Palestinian technocrats before being transferred to a reformed Palestinian Authority — an outcome Netanyahu has previously opposed.
The proposal pointedly excludes expulsion of Palestinians from Gaza, an idea Trump appeared to endorse earlier this year. Hamas has not formally received the plan but has repeatedly rejected disarmament without recognition of a Palestinian state.
Netanyahu acknowledged the U.S. initiative in a Fox News interview, saying: “We are working with President Trump’s team … and I hope we can make it a go.” At the U.N. last week, Netanyahu praised Trump as “an essential partner who understands better than any other leader that Israel and America face a common threat.”
International pressure and mounting toll
Despite Trump’s backing, Israel has lost much of the international goodwill it once relied on. At the U.N. Security Council, countries condemned both Hamas’s October 2023 attack — which killed 1,200 people in Israel and saw 251 hostages taken — and Israel’s devastating response.
The Gaza Health Ministry, which operates under Hamas, says more than 66,000 Palestinians have been killed since the war began. The U.N. and independent experts consider the figures reliable. Roughly 90% of Gaza’s population has been displaced, and famine conditions have taken hold in parts of the territory.
Meanwhile, Western-aligned nations including Britain, France, Canada, and Australia formally recognized Palestinian statehood last week, a move Netanyahu blasted as a “reward for terrorism.” Several Arab states and international rights groups have gone further, accusing Israel of genocide. The U.N.’s highest court is weighing that charge, which Israel denies.
What’s at stake in Washington
For Trump, the meeting represents an opportunity to showcase statesmanship and progress in a region where his predecessors struggled. For Netanyahu, it may be a last chance to preserve his political future by aligning with his strongest international ally.
Whether the Washington summit yields a breakthrough or simply more tension will depend on how far Trump is willing to press Israel — and how much political risk Netanyahu is prepared to take.
